We might have a reasonable idea of what the next six months will hold for tech, but this gets sketchier when we predict the year 2022 as a whole. Each unit of distance you look through fog, it will lose a certain fraction of the light.” But then if you want to see twice as far as that, you can’t see anything at all. “When you look a bit further, it’s fuzzier. “When you’re in fog, you can see short distances quite clearly,” he said. Geoff Hinton, one of the Nobel Prize-winning pioneers of artificial neural networks, once described the future to me as being akin to peering through fog. When they declared events to be a sure thing, more than one-quarter of them failed to transpire.” As David Epstein’s 2019 article for The Atlantic, “ The Peculiar Blindness of Experts,” notes of the study: “When experts declared that future events were impossible or nearly impossible, 15% of them occurred nonetheless. A famous 20-year study of experts, comprising 82,361 probability estimates about the future, were almost all wrong. It’s no secret that most predictions are terrible. It certainly can’t be worse than much of what we have today. “I think it’s a terrible name, but for now it’ll have to do.” “I call it the technology intelligence engine,” said Giorgio Tarraf, the bearded, yet boyish, 33-year-old who built the new model. Chris DeGraw/Digital Trends, Getty Images ![]() “We make sense of tomorrow, today,” claims the website of the small company, which has been doing its smart technological guesswork (with humans instead of A.I.) since 1978. The figures come from a massive new artificial intelligence forecasting engine built by the French intelligence firm, L’Atelier.
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